There’s been lots of great commentary about why scrapping the census long-form is about the worst public policy decision since scrapping the Avrow Arrow, so I’m not going to go there.  What interests me most about this issue is just how crappy the Conservative’s issues management folks (read: the political operatives in the shadows) have been on this file.

I was just watching my favourite afternoon politics program, Power and Politics, and almost fell out of my chair listening to Industry Minister Tony Clement’s rationale for scrapping the long-form: Statistics Canada told us to.  First off, it is highly doubtful that StatsCan initiated this recommendation without pressure from the Minister’s office. (I’m excited for the  ”our Minister is full of sh$t” leaks out of StatsCan in the days ahead.)  That aside, if ‘StatsCan told me to do it’ is the narrative - aka the best story they’ve got to justify this policy change - I’m feeling pretty confident the decision is going to be reversed.  The other weak defence is that Clement has received complaints from some people about ‘invasion of privacy,’ but I’m betting those complaints are a trickle rather than a flood.

This government does very well with issues management - this is, when a controversial (or potentially controversial) piece of policy is announced they’ve got a great narrative to justify it that resonates with enough of the public to keep them on top of the polls; they usually also have a line-up of interest groups and commentators ready to feed that narrative; the conservatives also manage to link Liberal opposition to most government policy to Ignatieff’s ‘just visiting,’ ‘he’s an effeminate boob that puts grey poupon on his poutine, and pours crème fresh in his Tim Hortons’ narrative that has been so ruthlessly nurtured by the Conservative politics machine.  Maybe an assumption was made that only a bunch of academics would come to the long-form’s defence, and Iggy standing with those folks only strengthens the ‘he’s an out-of-touch-professor-from-Harvard-who-is-more-American-than-Canadian’ crap that’s underpinned the ‘just visiting’ smear campaigns of late?

The most notable exception to the Conservative’s scary good issues management was the ‘let’s make the national anthem gender neutral’ balloon they floated in the last throne speech, which they popped almost immediately when the backlash was fast and furious.  Their refusal to support safe abortions as part of their international maternal health policy came close too, but there was a very long line of groups willing to stand with the government on that one. Not so on the long-form elimination.  Seems that only a few less than stellar commentators are with the government, but very few others.

This decision seems to be based on playing to (someone correct me if I’m wrong) a very small part of the Conservative base.  A group of folks that would always vote for PM Harper’s team, or at the very worst stay home on Election Day.

Bottom line, I just don’t see good politics in this issue. I’m assuming somebody simply ‘misunderestimated’ the level of outcry that would come with scrapping the long-form, which is why the Industry Minister has been caught flat footed when trying to justify the decision in the media.  He’ll get a chance to elaborate in committee, but I struggle to see how he’ll spin this issue’s narrative in the government’s favour.  Even more amazing to me is the number of groups opposing this policy (not just the snooty academics that the Conservatives probably anticipated would stand in opposition), including lots of groups that would traditionally walk in lock-step with government policy. This is all the more curious to me that Industry dropped the ball, given how well their issues management was on C-32 (Copyright Modernization.)

Anyway, all that to say: from a political perspective, I’m more hopeful now that this policy will be reversed.  That’s a good thing because the long-form is incredibly important.  I guess all the good Conservative operatives have gone fishin’, or have been put on rapid response to the Iggy summer tour?